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Today's News news archive >>
US Considering Nuclear Accord With Russia (Reuters)

Govt, Pakistan Launch Dialogue, Differ on Iran (Reuters)

A Defiant Iran Banks on a Split at UN (Christian Science Monitor)

Senior Iran Cleric Tells Sudan That Nuclear Aid Is Available (New York Times)

Russia, China Stress Diplomacy in Iran Nuclear Row (Reuters)

Analysis more >>
China, Russia and Iran

Stronger diplomatic action on Iran depends heavily on the policies of Russia and China.  According to two senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment, the actions that either country takes next should be understood in light of their threat perceptions, economic interests, and the strength of the U.S.-French-German coalition.


In a candid April 18 interview, Director of the Russian & Eurasian Program Andrew Kuchins and Director of the China Program Minxin Pei gave their perspectives on Russia and China’s foreign policy views of Iran. (Read More)

Iran's Long Nuclear Road

How long will it take for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon?

On April 11, 2006, Iran announced that it had enriched a small quantity of uranium to 3.5 percent in its experimental 164-centrifuge test cascade.  It also announced plans to begin building a 3,000-centrifuge cascade by the end of 2006.

The best estimates indicate that Iran is 5-10 years away from the ability to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon. But there are major uncertainties with these estimates. One worst-case scenario could have Iran with a nuclear bomb at the end of 2009, but that assumes that Iran does not encounter any of the technical problems that typically plague such programs.  

As reported in August 2005 by the Washington Post, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran concludes that Iran is closer to 10 years from having a nuclear bomb. The IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) hypothesizes that it would “likely require a few years to complete and operate a pilot-scale test facility of several thousand centrifuges” and “likely a few years to produce enough HEU for a single nuclear weapon.” One of the most comprehensive reports to date has been published by David Albright and Corey Hinderstein at ISIS (the Institute for Science and International Security).  The report speculates that it may be possible for Iran to build a nuclear weapon by 2009.

This analysis explores this worst-case estimate. It concludes that carefully tracking the Iranian progress over the next two years and giving IAEA inspectors the authority and ability to fully investigate all facilities will be the key to determining when, or if, Iran could achieve the ability to produce the material for a nuclear bomb. (Read More)

The End of Neoconservatism

If Francis Fukuyama is right, the neoconservative movement is dying.  Good riddance.  Through their network within the Bush administration, these intellectuals wreaked havoc on American national security interests, ruined the international reputation of the country and drove up a staggering national debt.  In his February 19 New York Times magazine article, “After Neoconservatism,” Fukuyama pronounces the theory a failure, noting that all its major tenets have been discredited, including predictions about the need for and consequences of invading Iraq. He should know.  He was one of the leading architects of the movement he now dissects. 
“The so-called Bush doctrine,” he writes, “is now in shambles.  The doctrine…argued that, in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, America would have to launch periodic preventive wars to defend itself against rouge states and terrorists with weapons of mass destruction; that it would do this alone, if necessary; and that it would work to democratize the greater Middle East as a long-term solution to the terrorist problem.”


Fukuyama argues that the Bush administration is now in a full-scale retreat from these positions. Last year, when he was writing the book that forms the basis of his article, it may have seemed that way.  Then, as he points out, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was tacking back to the center with more pragmatic diplomatic efforts on both North Korea and Iran that were bearing fruit. 

But Fukuyama missed or underestimated the conflict within the administration.  Officials still fixed on regime overthrow struck back, crippling the North Korean diplomacy and confusing an already complicated Iranian effort.  As Jessica Mathews points out in her recent New York Times opinion piece, the administration still “cannot decide whether the top priority of its Iran policy should be regime change or non-proliferation; as a result, others of the major powers do not trust and will not fully support its antinuclear efforts.” (Read More)

Carnegie in the News

Interview on C-SPAN: April 12, 2006
Joseph Cirincione discussed reactions to Iran's claims of uranium enrichment. He stresses that there is no military option. He offered recommendations on how to work towards a diplomatic resolution over the nuclear program.
Click here
for a video link of his interview.

Interview on KQED: April 12, 2006
Joseph Cirincione addressed issues posed by the Bush Administration's plans to develop new nuclear weapons. Col. Mike Turner (USAF-Ret.), Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher , (D-California), Lawrence Korb, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and Yale University Professor Paul Bracken.
Click here to listen to the forum.

Interview on NPR's "On Point": April 11, 2006
Joseph Cirincione joins Seymour Hersh of The New Yorker and others in a discussion on Iran's nuclear program. Cirincione highlights the parallels between the Bush administration's strategy on Iraq and their intentions of regime change in Iran.
Click here
for a video link of his interview.
Interview on NPR's Talk of the Nation: April 12, 2006
Joseph Cirincione discusses the latest Iranian nuclear claims of uranium enrichment and highlights the best national intelligence and IAEA estimates on the nuclear program. He also emphasizes the danger of keeping an American military option on Iran on the table.
Click here
for streaming audio.

Interview by Bernard Gwertzman, Council on Foreign Relations: April 4, 2006
Joseph Cirincione expressed concern that the some in the Bush administration are intent on launching a military strike on Iran. He calls on the Bush administration to declassify intelligence estimate on Iran's nuclear capabilities, which indicate that Iran is far from having nuclear weapons. Click here for the full transcript of the interview.

Interview on PBS NewsHour, March 2, 2006
Joseph Cirincione discussed the danger that U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with India poses for the international nonproliferation framework. For a transcript of this segment is available online.
Click here
to access streaming video.

Deadly Arsenals II:
The second edition of Carnegie's proliferation atlas, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats, is now available for purchase. The second edition is substantially revised and updated with new chapters on Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya and others. The original 2002 book was selected as a CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title in 2003 as a "best of the best in published scholarship." The study is widely used in university graduate and undergraduate courses and is a staple on experts' bookshelves. For additional information, please click here.

Universal Translations:
The new Carnegie report has been translated into Russian, Chinese, and Arabic, and will also be distributed throughout India. The Carnegie Endowment released "Universal Compliance" in March 2005. This new blueprint for the international nuclear non-proliferation regime reflects input from experts and officials in the United States and twenty countries across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the former Soviet states and Russia.

Latest Resources Recent Project Work >>
IAEA Report by the Director General on Iran
28 April 2006

"Controlling Iran’s Nuclear Program"
Joseph Cirincione, Issues in Science and Technology, Spring 2006

"The Iran Plans"
Seymour M. Hersh, New Yorker, 8 April 2006

"Fool Me Twice"
Joseph Cirincione, Foreign Policy, March 27, 2006

The National Security Strategy,
The White House, March 2006

Statement to the United Nations Conference on Disarmament by HE Mr. Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran
31 March 2006

National Military Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction
Report by the Department of Defense, 24 March 2006

The Clock is Ticking, But How Fast?
David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, Institute for Science and International Security, 27 March 2006

Preventing Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism
Charles D. Ferguson II, Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations Special Report, March 2006

(Click here for more latest resources)
Project News
Why We Fight
A new award-winning documentary by Eugene Jarecki features extensive commentary by Carnegie's Joseph Cirincione. The film is now playing nationwide. Click here to visit the film's website.

Carnegie has a new DVD with "A Brief History of the Atomic Age," and talks with the director general of the IAEA and three of the world's top nuclear historians. The events were filmed at the Carnegie Non-Proliferation Conference. Click here to order your FREE copy.

2005 Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference, November 7-8 in Washington, DC. Access the special conference website for audio, video, prepared remarks, rapporteur summaries, photo galleries and more. For additional information, click here.

Deadly Arsenals II
The new edition of Carnegie's proliferation atlas, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats, is now available. Click here to read sample chapters.

Get the Proliferation News email. Top stories, latest analysis, and the best resources sent to you every Tuesday and Thursday. Free. Click here to sign up.

Iraq Intelligence Page
Read reports, news stories, expert analysis, and testimony on intelligence on Iraq. Also, access Carnegie's 2004 Report, WMD in Iraq, which provides the best available summary of what was claimed, what the intelligence supported, and what was actually found on Iraq's weapons program.

Deadly Maps

The complete collection of maps from Carnegie's Deadly Arsenals.

What's New?
Click here to view recent updates to our site, including the latest reports, up-to-date expert analysis, and government resources.

A. Q. Khan
Click here for the best resources on the web on the A.Q. Khan nuclear black market.
  Administration Resources Collection of testimony, statements and reports from the Bush Administration.
Carnegie Director for Non-Proliferation Joseph Cirincione was singled out by the National Journal as one of one hundred Americans whose ideas will influence the key issues for this administration.
Ballistic Missile Reader
Twenty years of writings on missile and anti-missile systems.

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